The Iran War Expert: I Simulated The Iran War for 20 Years. Here’s What Happens Next
Professor Robert Pape argues that the US is trapped in an 'escalation trap' in Iran, where tactical military successes (bombing facilities) have led to strategic failures (dispersed nuclear material and a more aggressivesummaryHe predicts a 75% chance of US ground deployment to locate nuclear assets, which will likely trigger global economic disruption and long-term geopolitical decline for the US as China benefits from American distraction.summaryIran's regime is an adaptive 'matrix' structure, not a brittle hierarchy. Killing the Supreme Leader removed a 'guardrail' (a fatwa against nuclear weapons) and replaced him with a more aggressive successor backed by thetakeaway














